- Polymarket (a crypto betting platform) faces scrutiny over significant differences in US presidential votes compared to mainstream polls.
- It shows Trump leading with 64.3% odds, while Reuters suggests Kamala Harris is in the lead with 46% (compared to the Republican’s 43%).
- There’s growing speculation that whales are influencing the odds by betting big on Trump.
- Another concern is that foreign bets are skewing the perception of US voters.
As anticipation builds around the upcoming US presidential election (November 5), Polymarket’s voting poll favoring Trump (with 64.3% odds) is turning heads.
Many experts disagree with the Polygon-based prediction market’s results, especially considering mainstream ballots show Trump trailing behind Harris.
Further fueling the fire is doubts about a substantial number of US whales potentially trespassing on the platform to shift the odds in Trump’s favor.
Investors from across the pond who have voting rights also don’t help matters.
Trump Garners ~$746M in Bets on Polymarket
On Polymarket, almost $746M in bets have been placed on Trump and just over $477M on Harris (with 35.6% of votes).
Trump also takes the lead on the crypto betting platform Kalshi, with 59%, compared to Harris’ 41%.
Owing to a recent mainstream poll showing notable discrepancies from these two betting platforms, there’s speculation that US whales are fixing their odds by betting big on Trump.
Unlike Kalshi, US investors are banned from voting on Polymarket. According to Bloomberg, the platform is looking into US investors wagering significant sums on the presidential outcome.
To address these speculations, the platform is exploring methods they may be using to gain access. One theory is that they may be using virtual private networks (VPNs) to bypass the blockade.
However, Mark Cuban (a Polymarket investor) told CNBC that most bets on Polymarket’s US election market are from overseas and thus don’t represent genuine US voter sentiment.
Polymarket Whale Wagers $20M+ on Republican Win
Nevertheless, one Polymarket whale ringing alarm bells is ‘Fredi999,’ who’s placed an eye-boggling $20M+ to stir the political outcomes in Trump’s interest.
According to Domer (a full-time political bettor with 16 years of experience), Fredi999 has created multiple Polymarket accounts to mask his trading activity.
Fredi9999 is, I believe, creating new Polymarket accounts so it doesn’t look like a single trader. Fredi9999 the OG account, second account PrincessCaro, third account Michie, and the most recent account Theo.Domer
He added that mark-to-market, the accounts have $28M in positions from the $25M bets placed.
Per his findings, all accounts received significant amounts of capital (from $500K to $1M) and bet big on Trump straight away.
Theo received a large deposit, and plowed it into Trump winning the popular vote, sending it from 26% to 39% in a few hours.Domer
Harris Outperforms Trump Outside of Crypto
On the flip side, Harris is the frontrunner in the political race in the mainstream world.
Albeit tightly fought, a recent six-day poll by Reuters suggests that Harris outstrips Trump with 46% in electoral support versus the Republican’s 43%.
The Crypto-Politics Conundrum Continues
The vast difference in stats between the two crypto betting platforms and a traditional one raises major red flags.
In the crypto arena, the significant bets placed on a Trump victory suggest that whales are unfairly skewing public perception for personal gain.
A large number of votes coming from overseas on Polymarket further intensifies the issue because they might not align with Americans’ interests.
When considering these results may influence voters to cast their ballot according to the ‘presumed’ status quo, investors must be cautious about interpreting them as legitimate electoral preferences.
References
- Presidential Election Winner 2024 (Polymarket)
- Who Will Win the Presidential Election? (Kalshi)
- Domer’s Official Twitter Account (X)
- Poll: Harris Holds 46%-43% Lead Over Trump (Reuters)
